A Race Model for China’s EU Policy

14th July is the first day of new EU parliament. The clash between Griffin, the far-right BNP (British National Party) leader and MEP, and Baroness Kinnock, Britain’s minister for EU, bursts. It implies there is a huge gap amongst British attitude to EU. Indeed when European parliament election was happening in June, the diversity of the EU emerged cross the continent, not limited in Britain. The message is clear. The turn-out hit the historical low. The voters lost their interest in the EU. The right wing was winning. After this election, the EU will confront the Irish second referendum on Treaty of Lisbon. The first referendum has been vetoed last year. The referendum will determine whether Ireland accepts the EU constitution-like. If the referendum was failed again, the EU would face a constitutional crisis.

Such hesitation also presents Chinese dilemma. It is apparent that China has not found a united Europe when facing EU. Chinese EU policy seems fragile and isolated. In order to deal with the massive diversity inside the EU, China has developed a buy-your-bill’s strategy with European countries. To maximise Chinese benefit, the most ideal deal should be that China could buy at a whole-sale price. However currently China has to make individual deals with each member and the total cost is more expensive than the whole sale.

The case of Sarkozy claims the failure of Chinese strategy. China always takes it for granted that French like China for Chinese had so many old French friends like Chirac, Mitterrand. All of them and other Frenchmen loved Chinese culture so much. Even to Sarkozy, China once offered generous support when he was in the lowest in his political career. When Sarkozy visited China in 1995 and 2005, he was expelled from Chirac’s inner circle but was arranged to meet President Hu Jintao. Additionally, in 2008 China also secured its friendship with France by purchasing Airbus and nuclear technologies in order to comfort French. But in the end, China still can not tame the energetic little Napoleon. Sarkozy’s tricks on Tibet and tax haven blacklist have demonstrated China’s failure.

Crossing the English Channel, though China has no such old English friends as Chirac, Mitterrand in France, the bilateral relationship of China-UK has developed rapidly and fruitfully since 1999. Chinese students have become the largest international students group there. Most of them are self-funded. To normal Chinese, Britain is more attractive and recognised. (need more info to support relations developed rapidly and fruitful since 1999: the next is the supportive cases)Last October, David Miliband (full name), the UK foreign sectary, recognized China’s sovereignty over Tibet by announcing “we regard Tibet as part of the People’s Republic of China” Immediately, UK foreign office published the memorandum of the UK and China: the framework of Engagement in the early of 2009.To differ from buying French airbus, Chinese are more prefer to import British ideas in politics, finance and R&D. Even the crisis beats UK’s reputation in finance, China still like to learn from London City and their financial regulation.

The development between China and UK implies some possible cooperation on EU’s affair. Britain is a veteran to play with Europe. Euro-skepticism is always a long controversy in British politics. However, Britain would never withdraw itself from EU. Both Tory (spell the full name: Tory is the nickname of Conservative) and Labour share the intention of bringing British influence to play the game in EU. The euro-skeptic Tory deliberately ignores this EU’s strategic value: Britain is not only a member of EU, but also a spokesman for EU. The spokesman’s role has given British the credit in the front of his ally American during the WWII and Cold War. Entering into 21st century, Britain transferred the credit in the War on Terrorism. Today it is fighting global recession.

With the end of Iraq and Afghanistan war, Obama intends to end the tension between America and the other worlds. To avoid losing his weight in the America-Anglo special relation, Britain must find a new interest point with America. The fight against global recession is the next one. The G20 summit showed that Brown still can work with America, but Obama switches his weight to European gradually.

The competition in EU is coming. Sarkozy leads France back to NATO. He shows his intention to pursue a European leadership. Britain’s role of the EU spokesman is under threatened by Sarkozy’s aggressiveness. The time is coming that Britain and France will compete inside Europe and global. In the global stage, Brown needs find a leverage to sell his spokesman’s role. Undoubtedly, Brown shows his friendly and comfortable gesture to China, for example the flexibility on Tibet and the warmth for long-term engagement. As a return, in this G20 summit, China reacts positively to Brown’s fiscal stimuli plan.

The fight against global recession implies the UK need China to buy the bill. It predicts the further cooperation in a wide range of issues. On the EU affair, it has to been admit that China is not a veteran. The more reasonable and pragmatic way is to select a potential collaborator inside EU. Britain may be a good candidate. The recent development on Sino-UK has set their milestone for future. To integrate Britain into China’s EU policy could be an attempt to end the dilemma of buy-your-bill’s strategy.

A new race model may be worthy of being considered to China’s EU policy. In this model, China need not use his economy power to comfort the each country in EU. What he can do is to choose some potential candidates for the race. Only the winner is awarded. Obviously Britain and France are good candidates. It seems that today Britain is Chinese favourite. The British duality of EU spokesman and traditional Euroskeptic provide himself enough space to manipulate. Therefore China should throw away the efforts and illusions to find a united Europe. Put the bet on a qualified horse and tame some old naughty friend.